elements Of Finance.netÓ
Shareable Resources for Teaching
& Learning
in the Arts & Sciences, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics, and
Financial Economics (aSTEMfe)
Writings by prof-td@elementsOfFinance.net
The elements Of Finance book: http://elementsoffinance.net/elements.pdf
Most recent preview of active project: http://elementsoffinance.net/palette.pdf
Back history of the preview http://elementsoffinance.net/support/palette-20251210.pdf
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/palette-20250213.pdf
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/palette-20230220.pdf
About the septuagenerean baby-boomer author born within a decade of
the end of World War 2…
Parents and society taught me the value and
excitement of learning. During 2 years in John Adams Junior High School housed
in the historic downtown Garner HS [2021a] building in Charleston WV, the thrill of diagramming
sentences into parts during English classes coupling with tripartite checks and
balances during Civics classes adding onto beautiful angles and motion during
Math classes, that all put me in the comfort zone for liking learning.
Reinforcement came during the 2 years at the nearly new George Washington High
School in the hills south of downtown with Biology classes teaching about DNA
and electron microscope imagery of mitochondria and bacteria, English classes
discussing thoughtful world literature in a seminar setting, and Typing classes
igniting the cortical columns of my brain as never has happened before or
since, these secondary school events set a concrete conviction in motion for me
to obtain after graduation as a George Washington Patriot in June 1970 a
college degree and eventually a doctorate, should circumstances permit.
None before in my extended family had
gone to college. Like astronauts and Presidents, the only time I ever saw a Professor was on TV! El Camino Community College during
primary school years in California and Morris Harvey College in Charleston were
the only colleges that I recall seeing. Nonetheless, a dozen years later and
right on time in August 1982 the successful final defense of my doctoral
dissertation at Purdue certifies that I can “Pile **it Hip Deep.
Thankfully, Boston College Department
Head Dr. Jerry Viscione extended an invitation for me to join the ranks of
about 10 faculty in the Finance Department in Chestnut Hill MA, just down the
Green Line trolley from Fenway Park, commencing September 1982. My preconception was that Boston
arguably was the metropolis for higher education in the USA. With
gratitude for the goodness that domicile during 4 years in Tippecanoe County
Indiana delivered to me and my spouse, a sharp New Yorker pointed and direct
that has illumined my path since September 1971 during our freshman year
at La Universidád Católica de Puerto Rico, we loaded
our 2 preschool sons (Boilermakers before Hoosiers) into the 1978 Honda Accord
and loaded household property into a 26’ rental box truck (standard
transmission) and in August 1982 we headed to Boston to buy a house at a
mortgage rate of 17.25%! My 7 year career with Boston
College was incredible, almost unbelievable, with an ongoing sequence of highly
improbable events that continue to influence me.
Three essays from my doctoral
dissertation provided 3 manuscript threads that went through “journal
submission/rejection/improve/resubmit elsewhere” cycles for years without any acceptances.
Two threads got a nibble at a top journal (Review of Economics and Statistics
and Journal of Political Economy) with revise/resubmit invitations after
addressing any advice or concerns in the referee reports. Editors or referees
chose in both cases to reject the revision. The most common criticisms included
(a) the overly restrictive or obscure modeling assumptions, and/or (b) what’s
the point and why should anyone care? Today, 44 years after receiving a Ph.D. from
Purdue University, even though I didn’t realize then, y’all were right that the
story was incomplete! Not until September 2026 have I
realized the spatial overlap of (a) the intrinsic value of a balance sheet, and
(b) the Black zero beta portfolio! My objective is for the above active project
(palette) to communicate
simply and effectively how numeracy guides the formation of a perfect union because
(a) merging 2 balance sheets into 1 whereby the whole equals the sum of parts
in a zero sum merger is an isoperimetric union,
and (b) the portfolio weights for all assets in the exchange economy gravitate
toward a more perfect isoperimetric union as time and the superhominin
hive evolve.
1. This study, “Tax Policy and
Stock Prices” is co-authored with Dr Patric Hendershott, Head of my
dissertation Committee at Purdue University (1978-82; other Committee members:
Profs Gary Schlarbaum, James Moore, and Hu Sheng Cheng). This study introduces
a model for intrinsic value in order to measure the effects from tax law
changes on values of the real nonfinancial corporate fixed capital stocks in
the USA. Sheer gratitude flows from me
to Prof Hendershott for pointing me at the implications of the Treasury tax
proposals that y’all at the NBER had been discussing.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/ntj_tax_policy.pdf
Forty
years ago a version of the study was presented by me
[1986a Presentation
to the NBER ] at
the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute Research Series.
Distinguished profs seated around the conference room table included moderator David
Bradford (Princeton U), Martin Feldstein (Harvard U, President and CEO of the
NBER), Mervyn King (London School of Economics), Jonathan Leape (also LSE),
Alan Auerbach (HarvardU), Pat Hendershott (Ohio State
U, NBER Research Associate), a few others, each holding a study similar to the
NBER working paper [1986b NBER
WP #2094 ] that
went public about 2 months later. Room discussion by Prof Leape
clarified that the risk premia for tax shields differs
from non-tax shields even though, as is also true and I said, the equity
financing rate capitalizes the cash flows to equity at the residual rate. Prof
Feldstein saw the gap between intrinsic value and current replacement cost as
problematic. After finishing amidst salutations, Prof Feldstein asked for me to
meet in a few days with capital stock specialist Charles Hulten (U Maryland)
for discussion. After exiting alone from the conference room to the hallway the
next presenters, Lawrence Summers (Harvard U) and David Cutler (MIT) were going
in. That gave me opportunity to offer Prof Summers thanks for the fantastic
discussions on economic income in Feldstein and Summers [1979a] that
were pivotal for me developing a dissertation proposal. The encounter also gave
opportunity for me to confess some confusion following his Q-trajectories to
their point [1981a]!
Two months after the presentation my home phone
rang about 8:30am. Though answering the phone with a poopy baby diaper in-hand
before heading to my Boston College office, I hear “Hello, this is Fischer
Black,” then Managing Director at Saloman Brothers and forevermore the MIT prof
that laid a firm foundation for standardized option markets. The 45-minute
phone conversation about intrinsic value remains a cherished &
inspirational event in my half century with universities of higher learning. “Tax
Policy and Stock Prices” was published in 1987 by editor Daniel Holland (also
at Massachusetts Institute of Technology) in the National Tax Journal.
The 1987 study writes the “fundamental value of capital” as a descriptive label
for the underlying concept whereas my current perspective prefers “intrinsic
value.”
2. This study, “Using the User
Cost”, appears
in the Journal of Economics and Business [1986c]. The
study presents the model with continuous time math (calculus). Most my other
writings are, like all moments, discrete periodic math.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/jecb_user_cost.pdf
Nearly all studies on fixed asset capital
stocks employ a user cost derived under assumptions inconsistent with the
assumptions used to derive their capital stock estimates. This study examines
the significance of this inconsistency and, more importantly, presents the
intrinsic value model that eliminates it. The user cost accounts for phenomena besides the
financial cost of money such as physical depreciation in productive capacity
and the effects of inflation and taxation. The user cost of capital is akin to
the gross profit margin ratio of financial accounting with a numerator of
EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation or amortization
charges). Synonyms for “user cost of capital”
include the rental price, shadow price, or time cost of capital. This study
refers to the product of the user cost times the quantity of real capital as
“the NOIs” (net operating income, a synonym for EBITDA).
John Keynes
writes in The
General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money [1936a] that “the user cost
constitutes a link between the present and future.” Finance is all about time
as often it’s heard that time is money for the many that put their mind on their
money and their money on their mind!
3. This study in The Financial Review [1986d], “The User
Cost and Capital Budgeting”, expounds on the
generalization of cash flow stream shapes from the perspective of the zero net
present value rule for determining the feasible investment set.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/tfr_capital_budgeting.pdf
4. Read how penny stocks and extreme outcomes
provide evidence for the share market lottery premium.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/jpm_lottery.pdf
This
article with then Ph.D. Finance student coauthor Quan Wen at the University of
Alabama shows that 1-in-4 of extreme positive stock returns occur for stocks
priced under $7 a share whereas 1-in-20 occur for medium and higher priced stocks.
Expectations are that rates of returns distribute independently of any specific
share price level. Those investors seeking extreme returns behaviorally respond
to a low stock price by perceiving a chance to own the winning ticket, however
remote, and willingly accept lower than average outcomes. The lottery premium
is larger in up markets than down markets and has become more costly as decades
roll on.
5. Learn that the ex ante rate of return required to induce investment
generally equals the risk free rate of return plus a
risk premium whereas the expected rate of return depends on information and
information alone. The expected value of future flows sustains the expected
rate of return in a model of capitalized economic value described centuries ago,
never abandoned, made stronger ever since.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/average_period_user_cost_and_term_structure.pdf
.
6. Learn that the shape of the intrinsic
yield curve depends on the degree of risk-sharing and risk-aversion between
creditors and shareholders.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/neoclassical_term_structure.pdf
This
paper introduces diversification benefits from investment as a source of wealth
for the risk premium that sustains the growth of financial markets.
7.
See that a complex modeling and measuring of the intrinsic value for a
balance sheet enables mapping intrinsic value to public policy in general and
to tax policy in particular.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/aer_stock_prices.pdf
A
fundamental finding is that the responsiveness of balance sheet intrinsic value
to a change in the financial cost of capital may be positive or negative and
depends on a ratio of percentage changes, that is an interest elasticity
(“duration”) of the return streams for marginal investments relative to that
for total assets. When the ratio of elasticities exceeds unity, a plausible
scenario in some scenarios, then intrinsic value rises with a rising cost of
capital and falls with a falling cost of capital. An increase in the cost of capital
is commonly thought to unidirectionally depress intrinsic value – wrong! Thanks
to Boston College co-author colleague Hassan Tehranian that comparing the
excess stock return numbers from his FORTRAN program with my predicted changes
of intrinsic value for 3 industries selected a priori while stating “but how did you know” –
priceless. Besides lucky stats, I am even more grateful to HT for the
introduction outside my BC office door to Professor Billy Helms visiting momentarily
from the University of Alabama who, unbeknownst at the time, would very soon
offer guidance and growth opportunities for my family and me in sweet home
Tuscaloosa at the Department of Economics, Finance, & Legal Studies.
8.
Three financial accounting methods for valuing fixed asset stocks extend
like a telescope through different information sets. The historical replacement cost method
measures historical investment flows net of accumulated depreciation. The current replacement cost method extends
the measurements to account for incremental information on cumulative class
specific price inflation. The intrinsic
value method in this article accounts for general inflation, taxes, capital
accumulation histories, and capacity depreciation schedules.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/jar_fundamental_value.pdf
Thanks
to co-author Keith Shriver for questioning how my intrinsic value computations
might compare to his dataset with actual used fixed corporate asset prices. I
presented our findings at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business
annual conference hosted by the Institute for Professional Accounting. Actual
used corporate fixed asset prices track intrinsic valuations better than
historical cost or current cost measurements. A happy learning moment occurred when
discussant prof Ralph Sansing (Yale) having said that the intrinsic valuation
method “lacks a decision making context” received a
reply from Editor Katherine Schipper (UChicago) that the method is immune to
this criticism because the intrinsic value specification “has a dimension of
timelessness.” That dimension of timelessness forms the concrete bond between the
number and the real underlier! An uncertain learning moment occurred when
audience member Richard Leftwich (UChicago) requested from me clarification for
the effects on intrinsic value of asset specific price inflation versus class
or general inflation. I knew not the answer but only its event horizon. The
answer forms the overlapping equatorial meridian between (a) consumer theory of
utility specifications by Chipman and Moore (1983) that in the absence of
polymorphic household wants and needs, domestic tranquility begins at home and
accumulates into the wealth of a nation, and (b) producer theory of value
specifications from Dale Jorgenson (1983) that measure flow of funds matrices,
capacity utilization rates, and gross profit margins that accumulate into the
wealth of the nation. Sadly, domestic tranquility figures none to nil in Gross
National Product measurements.
9.
Learn that the demand price for real capital embodies expected returns
based upon economic information about discounted cash flows.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/producer_theory_of_value_and_equilibrium_stock_returns.pdf
When
properly discounted expected cash flows provide an intrinsic value measurement
then market competition assures that required risk premia measurements from the
consumer theory of value vibrate randomly and unpredictably around the information-based
expected returns (Bachelier 1893, 1906 and Paul Samuelson 1965). Burton Malkiel
(Princeton U) writes wrongly in A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1968)
that risk and risk alone determines the level of equilibrium rates of
return. Correction: Risk and risk alone
determine the required risk premium added to the risk-free rate, a societal
rate with concrete components independent of preferences. Risk determines only
the required rate of return and not its dual, the expected rate of return.
Information and information alone determines expected
rates of return. With well functioning markets and
wise public policy, competitive rates of returns vibrate randomly around an
idiosyncratic, asset specific intrinsic value.
10.
This study incorporates debt maturity structure into intrinsic value by
focusing on the zero net present value equilibrium condition in the market for
real assets. Market equilibria implies that the net
present value of the marginal investment is independent of the financing method
therefore user costs for alternative debt contracts equilibrate. The user cost
specification therefore implies a determinate relationship between interest
rates on alternative debt contracts.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/embodied_equity_theory_of_term_structure.pdf
Analysis
of the user cost specification reveals that the equilibrium interest rate is an
increasing function of the debt contract's loan-to-value ratio and debt
duration (its elasticity , average period). The basic
reason why the interest rate increases with average period is this: the equity
financing rate exceeds the interest rate, a
lengthening debt average period reduces to equity the discounted cost of debt
and the financing rate increases to re-establish equilibrium. The “embodied
equity” hypothesis advanced herein joins the expectations hypothesis, the
liquidity preference hypothesis, and the market segmentation hypothesis as
fundamental explanations for the normal upward slope on the yield curve.
11. This study models and measures
industry level intrinsic values, an approach that focuses on the asset side of
the balance sheet. The ratio of industry
market capitalization to intrinsic value, dubbed the overvalue ratio in the
study, leverages rates of return independently of required risk premia for
liability side commitments. Namely, for
a $1 change in intrinsic value the resultant shareholder rate of return is
smaller for an overvalued industry (or company) and bigger for an undervalued
company irrespective of risk factors or preferences.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/jpm_asset_valuation.pdf
This invited presentation (2017.1017) of an article
from the Journal of Portfolio Management (Editor Frank Fabozzi) at the Institutional
Investor Institute Quantitative Research Roundtable, a 1-day annual gathering
of securities market specialists. During the 75 minute
opening session at 8:30am Dr. Martin Leibowitz, then at TIAA-CREF, presented
“Asset allocation under shortfall constraints.”
grateful to praise his book Investing (1992) for its enduring
lessons, especially the “riding the yield curve” and the “barbell” investment
strategies, that I used in class and for cognition. Two profs presented to the attendees,
say 400 diverse workers in finance, already seated for lunch in this 1-day
program at the then famous Helmsley Hotel. Prof Ken French (Dartmouth) was the
keynote speaker presenting the Fama-French (1991) seminal work on
Book-to-Market ratios and multi-factor risk models. Then I spoke and sat back
down for lunch beside In a brief back-stage chat after
lunch before attendees went to break-out sessions and speakers skedaddled i conjectured to Ken French that the explanatory power of
the Book-to-Market ratio (=Stockholders’ equity divided by market cap) likely
has little to do with being a risk factor and more with being mechanically
connected by concrete numeracy to the Overprice ratio (=market cap divided by
intrinsic value).
12.
This unpublished paper analyzes a specification for the user cost of
capital that reveals fundamental implications for interpretation and
measurement of marginal effective income tax rates.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/marginal_effective_tax_rates.pdf
A
novel and surprising finding is that the marginal effective income tax rate is
invariant to asset characteristics such as service life and capacity
depreciation through equilibration by the user cost of capital that maintains a
zero net present value for marginal investments. Maybe the findings echo Paul Samuelson (1963)
regarding the invariance of asset intrinsic value to the marginal income tax
rate.
13. This study, inspired and coauthored
with the then Head of the UA School of Accountancy Robert Ingram replicates the
Fama-French research relating the cross-section of stock returns to firm size,
beta, and total risk. Fama-French find that size relates positively with
average returns, and beta doesn’t, a result we replicate. Extending the
analysis, however, finds that as the extreme 2% of stock returns are censored
with trimmed least squares that the explanatory power of firm size persists
only in flat to falling markets. Systematic risk relates positively in
up-markets and negatively in down-markets, an outcome consistent with the
Sharpe-Lintner-Black capital asset pricing model for beta. We also find that
average returns relate negatively with total risk. The reduction in average
return associated with an increase in total risk presumably reflects the
tradeoff that investors willingly sacrifice for a chance at an extreme albeit
unlikely return.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/jfr_risk_return.pdf
The
43 associate editors at Journal of Financial Research selected this
article as the Best of the Year and kindly sent us two a $5,000 prize to share.
14.
This study is one of just a handful in the literature that model the
economic value of nonfinancial corporate assets to establish that the well-known
Tobin’s Q-ratio (= market cap to current replacement cost) may systematically
and routinely deviate from unity due to differences in the timing of expected
after-tax cash flows. Still, empirical
evidence shows little incremental explanatory power from using tax-adjusted
Q-ratios instead of standard unadjusted Q-ratios.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/jpub_tax_bias.pdf
15.
This unpublished paper, coauthored with then Ph.D. student Cűneyt Demirgűreş, examines country funds
trading on the NYSE or AMEX comprised of common stocks trading on foreign
exchanges. We find high positive
correlation among premiums for country funds and conclude a "foreign-fund
investor sentiment" is systematic to all country funds. Premiums and domestic market indexes
correlate positively for funds investing in developed-economies (which largely concentrate
in the hands of individual investors) and negatively for funds investing in
developing-economies (which primarily are held by institutions). Returns on country funds and domestic indexes
correlate positive irrespective of ownership structure. These results suggest that foreign and
domestic investors use different information in setting asset prices thus
giving support to the investor sentiment hypothesis.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/investor_sentiment_closed_end_country_funds.pdf
16.
Learn how market capitalizations for public utility industries relate to
measurements of underlying asset values.
Current replacement cost measurements (CC) of those assets contain
specifiable biases of economic value that depend on capital accumulation
histories, capacity depreciation schedules, tax depreciation schedules, and
cost of capital components. An intrinsic
value model provides estimates that show the bias contains incremental
information beyond that inherent with the CC measurements.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/ntj_utility_valuation.pdf
This
study was awarded the $5,000 prize sponsored by the National Tax Association and
the Public Utility and Railroad Workshop at Wichita State University for the
annual Distinguished Award in Applied Research.
17.
Another unpublished nonclassical study that endogenizes debt maturity
into the intrinsic value of a hypothetical balance sheet shows different
recognizable formulations therein for the financial cost of capital.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/debt_maturity_and_cost_of_capital.pdf
18. The study below extends the sample from item
#4 in this list, the AER paper on stock prices and tax policy changes tracking
intrinsic value, to 10 industries (2-digit SIC code) rather than the 3
industries (2-digit SIC code) in the former study. The time required for
collecting the information on price to book ratios for debt securities
compelled settling on 3 heavily capitalized industries for the AER study. No
other industries were examined as we lacked key data. The additional evidence for
all 10 industries showed quite a bit of noise in the conclusions which was
little disheartening, for sure.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/tfr_tax_reform.pdf
19.
The important issue of government tax shields squeezing out private
investment is significant.
http://elementsoffinance.net/support/tfr_tax_shields.pdf
20. My doctoral dissertation from Purdue University
approved December 1982, “The Effects of Inflation and Taxation on the Value of
Capital” is item=8310819 at ProQuest. Therein the differential effect of LIFO
versus FIFO inventory accounting method on intrinsic value is specified and
accounted for though no later manuscripts utilize that particular reality
check! Committee members included Prof Patric Hendershott (Head), eventual
Minister without Portfolio for the Republic of China (Taiwan) Prof Hu Sheng
Cheng, Prof Gary Schlarbaum, and Prof James Moore.
The
Effects of Inflation and Taxation on the Value of Capital
References and Additional Readings
[1989a]
Cutler, David M., James M. Poterba, and Lawrence H. Summers. “What Moves
Stock Prices?” Journal of Portfolio Management, 1989, vol 15 (3), pp
4-12.
[1986a]
Downs, Thomas W; Text of the presentation read by me that introduces the
intrinsic value model at the NBER Summer Research Institute, Cambridge MA;
2026.0731
[1986b] Downs, Thomas W
and Hendershott, Patric H; NBER Working Paper #2094 is the presentation paper
with few exceptions.
[1986c] Downs, Thomas W; “Using the User Cost”; Journal of Economics and Business vol 38, pp 297-305; Fall 1986.
[1986d] Downs, Thomas W, “The User
Cost and Capital Budgeting”; The Financial Review, vol 21 (2), May 1986, pp
277-287.
Downs,
T. and Tehranian, H., "The Differential Impacts of Tax Policy Changes on
Industry Stock Prices," Bostonn College SOM
Working Paper 86-90 (October 1986).
bcwp86-10-19860115.pdf
bcwp84-35-19840915.pdf
[1987a] Downs, Thomas W and Patric H.
Hendershott; “Tax Policy and
Stock Prices”;
National Tax Journal vol 40 (2), June 1987, pp 183-190.
[1981a]
Summers, L.H., "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A Q-Theory
Approach,"
Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity
(1981:1) , pp 67-127.
[1979a]
Summers, L.H. and Martin Feldstein; "Inflation and the Taxation of Capital
Income in the Corporate Sector," NBER Working Paper 312 (1979)
[1936a] Keynes, J. M. (1936). The
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan (1936).
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